Special Edition: Mari's 2025 Grammy Predictions
The 2025 Grammys will air tonight at 8pm.
Just like last year, I am going to share my Grammy predictions for tonight!
Reminder: I haven’t listened to every music project nominated. And neither have the Recording Academy of voters. So… I’m just as qualified, I think. However, I have listened to a ton of music in 2024 and in January of this year, so I am going to try and cover as many categories as possible. I have listened to all the Album of the Year nominees, which feels like the most important thing anyways. Essentially, if I am familiar with more than half of the nominees, I’m going to give my opinion. Here we go!
Album of the Year
This is still the Crème de la crème. The award that turns into a bloodbath every year. I am very nervous about what will win. At the 2024 Grammys, I predicted Taylor’s Midnights win, and, in private, I unwittingly predicted Harry Styles’ win in 2023. Really harrowing actually.
So, without further ado, I present to you, my predictions for Album of the Year. This year is the category’s strongest year in awhile. So, I can actually see an argument for many of these albums to win.
And the nominees are:
André 3000 - New Blue Sun
Beyoncé - Cowboy Carter
Sabrina Carpenter - Short n’ Sweet
Charli XCX - Brat
Jacob Collier - Djesse Vol. 4
Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan - The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department
What Will Win: Charli XCX - Brat
What Should Win: Beyoncé - Cowboy Carter
Wild Card: Literally every other album here
Brat defined a culture. And although the Grammys relentlessly move the goalpost for Album of the Year every year, I feel like they’ll land on Brat because of how inescapable it was in every corner of 2024. Brat left no stone unturned, especially with how Tik-Tok, the media and public infrastructure became a part of the album’s staying power. (Even I was on the lookout for the next Brat installation or billboard!). Some say because of Jay-Z’s speech last year, people will be moved to vote Cowboy Carter for Album of the Year. If anything, that becomes a reason to NOT vote for her. I’ve seen some of those blind ballots. The Grammy voters are haters and petty. I think at this moment in time, voters are looking for a crowd-pleasing win, something akin to Bruno Mars’ 24K Magic win in 2018. Brat is the easiest way to accomplish such a thing and unlike 2018, I think it will quell most fanbases…
Cowboy Carter is obviously the best album here and I am tired of explaining why. I’ve talked about Cowboy Carter in my Beyoncé newsletter and my Best of 2024 newsletter. It’s an ambitious musical project that she just effortlessly knocks out the park. Brat may have defined a culture but Cowboy Carter speaks to the culture and recontextualizes it for an entire country. It is a really impressive feat. Oddly, I don’t think I have spoken enough about how meticulously magnificent the music is. The overarching themes are just as important, of course, but I think I have undersold how excellent the individual songs are. The Blackbird and Jolene covers are inspired and only add to the legend and overall chronicle of Beyoncé as a public figure and artist. Daughter is a delicious shadowy murder ballad that will excite any true crime fan, My Rose and Protector are delicate heartfelt lullabies for her twins. II Hands II Heaven and SWEET ☆ HONEY ☆ BUCKIIN are masterpieces in their own right. And I could go on and on and on. I just hope you don’t see my learned cynicism as being doubtful of Beyoncé. I am doubtful of the systems and an industry that has constantly disrespected and undervalued her for as long as I have been alive. I would obviously be elated if Cowboy Carter took home the Grammy. It’s what she deserves!
But, because there are so many good albums here, will the Grammys toy with playing politics? Will Andre 3000 be rewarded for his flute album because it’s imaginative, transcendent and unexpected? A win like that would remind me of Jon Batiste’s win in 2022 or Beck’s win in 2015. They’ve done it before so I am trying not to be shocked by ANY outcome here. Billie is a Grammy darling, as she should be, so she always has a chance. Would they dare extend Taylor’s record for most Album of the Year wins for the news coverage? Or will they want to reward one of the bright stars of 2024 in Sabrina or Chappell? Guess we’ll have to wait and see!
Song of the Year
I predicted Billie’s win last year (because it was obvious) so let’s see what we got going on here!
And the nominees are:
Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)
Billie Eilish - Birds of A Feather
Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga - Die With A Smile
Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe
Taylor Swift - Fortnight (featuring Post Malone)
Sabrina Carpenter - Please Please Please
Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em
What Will Win: Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga - Die With A Smile
What Should Win: Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather
Wild Card: Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe
The Grammys love Bruno. Die With A Smile is the quintessential Song of the Year. It’s pop enough to have a glamorous sheen to it, but its soft rock foundation seems like the perfect throwback that the Recording Academy will go nuts for. The addition of Gaga is the sugary icing on the cake. She won a Grammy for Joanne (the track) and so I think it’s pretty clear what is going to happen here.
Birds of a Feather, however, was the runaway hit of 2024. Although Billie was initially pushing LUNCH, Birds of a Feather swooped in and stole the hearts of a nation. It is lyrically astounding and viscerally emotional in the way she describes needing her partner to stay with her until she dies. “Might not be long,” haunts the song and gives it that much more urgency and necessity. It is one of Billie’s best and is absolutely my pick for song of the year. Not only is it critically solid, but it has the commercial success to back it up too! The general public and stans alike also seem to love it.
Good Luck, Babe is certainly the dark horse of this category. A song about a woman’s compulsory heterosexuality and how it affects her lover is groundbreaking just in subject matter. Then throw on a dreamy 80’s backing track on top of it and Chappell’s easy soprano-lite vocals, you really have the makings of a possible winner! It is simply nowhere near my favorite Chappell song, but I understand everyone’s obsession with it. If Driver’s License was the bridge of 2021, Good Luck, Babe certainly had the bridge of 2024. And as we know, bridges make a great pop song!
Record of the Year
I underestimated Miley’s win for Flowers last year, so I’ll keep that in mind when predicting.
And the nominees are:
The Beatles - Now and Then
Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em
Charli XCX - 360
Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso
Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather
Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
Taylor Swift - Fortnight (featuring Post Malone)
Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
What Will Win: Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso
What Should Win: Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
Wild Card: Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
Espresso is 100% the Flowers of this year. It’s actually one of my least favorite Sabrina songs, but it has captured the heart of a nation. It was an earworm and properly introduced the world to Sabrina. I do admit the pre-chorus is probably the most fun pop songwriting of the year and it just makes sense for Record of the Year.
You know what would be the funniest thing ever? If Kendrick Lamar wins record of the year for his fiery Drake diss a week before he performs it at the Superbowl and calls his archnemesis a pedophile on the biggest stage of the world! Like wouldn’t that be a perfect way to kick off Black History Month! I also think, probably even more than Espresso, Not Like Us has the spirit of a Record of the Year. How many people were bumping this?. There wasn’t a better way to get a party or club hype than to turn this joint on and imitate Kendrick’s little dance. So, that’s why it is my personal pick for Record of the Year.
Still, Good Luck Babe could win here, for the reasons I think it could snatch Song of the Year. I don’t imagine a Chappell sweep, but I don’t hate the idea of her taking 3 out of the 4 Big 4 categories.
Best New Artist
And the nominees are:
Sabrina Carpenter
RAYE
Doechii
Chappell Roan
Teddy Swims
Shaboozey
Khruangbin
Benson Boone
Who Will Win: Chappell Roan
Who Should Win: Chappell Roan
Wild Card: Sabrina Carpenter
This category is between Chappell and Sabrina. I am not sure, at all, how the Recording Academy votes for this category. It just seems all so subjective, even moreso than the other categories. I would hazard a guess that this category is about the story. What narrative have they and their team been pushing? How has their music affected the masses? I think Chappell has the better story. After all, Short N’ Sweet is technically Sabrina Carpenter’s sixth album and she has been having sleeper hits for awhile. You could even argue that she was worth considering for a nomination when emails I can't send came out in 2022. I love Sabrina and I don’t even think it is fair to place her in this category. I know Chappell has also been making music for awhile, but The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is genuinely her debut album, you know? We’ll see what happens. If Sabrina wasn’t in this category, my wild card would absolutely Doechii. It feels like she was shot through a cannon in the last couple months of 2024, and I think she has a lot of eyes on her for good reason! She is probably my favorite artist in this category!
Pop Solo Performance
And the nominees are:
Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather
Charli xcx - Apple
Beyoncé - Bodyguard
Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso
Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
What Will Win: Sabrina Carpenter - Espresso
What Should Win: Beyoncé - Bodyguard
Wild Card: Billie Eilish - Birds of a Feather
I’m going yet again with the double whammy of Record of the Year and Pop Solo Performance going to the same track. However, I had to push out Good Luck, Babe as a wildcard, because Birds of a Feather is just that good. Of course, my personal pick is Beyoncé’s Bodyguard, because it is the best song here.
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance
And the nominees are:
Gracie Abrams Featuring Taylor Swift - Us
Beyoncé Featuring Post Malone - Levii’s Jeans
Charli xcx and Billie Eilish - Guess remix
Ariana Grande, Brandy and Monica - The Boy is Mine remix
Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars - Die With A Smile
What Will Win: Die With A Smile
What Should Win: The Boy is Mine remix
Wild Card: Levii’s Jeans
Bruno can’t lose! So, never wonder why I will always choose him as my winner. It’s quite literally backed up with data. He hasn’t lost a Grammy award for over a decade. That’s right. In the last ten years, he went 13/13. That’s insane. It’s smart to never bet against Bruno at this time and this category isn’t particularly difficult, so this seems like an easy prediction.
My favorite track nominated is The Boy is Mine remix. It was such an ingenious idea to bring Brandy and Monica in for the ride. Some glorious harmonies, runs and riffs were explored here. The original was already good enough, but this elevated everything about the song. I mean, that bridge??? Fantastic.
I don’t think the Grammys will reward a song about underwear, no matter how progressive they pretend to be. So, the Charli/Billie guess remix has an uphill battle to climb. If, for some reason, the Grammys remember that Beyoncé is Beyoncé, I could see them randomly giving her this award. What the hell, sure!
Best Pop Vocal Album
And the nominees are:
Ariana Grande - Eternal Sunshine
Billie Eilish - Hit Me Hard and Soft
Chappell Roan - The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
Sabrina Carpenter - Short N’ Sweet
Taylor Swift - The Tortured Poets Department
What Will Win: The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess
What Should Win: Hit Me Hard and Soft
Wild Card: Short N’ Sweet
You might be wondering why I gave this one to Chappell. Simply put, I believe more of her songs had an effect on the music world than anyone else’s. Sabrina is obviously close in that regard, which is why I have her as a wild card: Taste, Juno, Bed Chem, Please Please Please and Espresso are all popular. But there’s something about how every other week in 2024, a different Chappell song was gaining traction. Whether it was Casual, Pink Pony Club, Red Wine Supernova, My Kink Is Karma or HOT TO GO! I think Chappell’s album had more of an impact than her fellow nominees. Of course though, if we’re talking about what the best album here is, I have to give it to HIT ME HARD AND SOFT, which to me, is a perfect 10/10 record. You could also make the case that multiple songs had far reach; Outside of Birds of a Feather and LUNCH, there is still Wildflower, CHIHIRO, The Greatest, and L’Amour De Ma Vie which all gained traction too.
Best Dance Pop Recording
And the nominees are:
Troye Sivan - Got Me Started
Ariana Grande - Yes, And
Madison Beer - Make You Mine
Charli xcx - von dutch
Billie Eilish - L’AMOUR DE MA VIE [OVER NOW EXTENDED EDIT]
What will Win: Charli xcx - von dutch
What should Win: Charli xcx - von dutch
Wild Card: Billie Eilish - L’AMOUR DE MA VIE [OVER NOW EXTENDED EDIT]
This is Charli’s category to lose in my opinion. I don’t think she’s going to get love in ROTY or SOTY so this is somewhere she can win easily. The Grammys, and the music industry at large, seem not to respect Ariana Grande and I couldn’t imagine Madison or Troye winning this year. This Billie record, though… it might complicate things. Because it is genuinely fantastic.
Best Alternative Music Album
And the nominees are:
What Now - Brittany Howard
All Born Screaming - St. Vincent
Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds - Wild God
Clairo - Charm
Kim Gordon - The Collective
What Will Win: What Now
What Should Win: All Born Screaming
Wild Card: Charm
Although Brittany Howard only has one Grammy, I think the Grammys will give her this one, despite St. Vincent winning this category before. Honestly, I think the fact that St. Vincent won the last time she was nominated for this category, would discourage voters from choosing her for this one. I love both albums regardless, but All Born Screaming was just on a whole other level to me. Both records made my top fifty for best albums of 2024, so you can see what I said about them in my Best of 2024 newsletter.
Speaking of albums that made my top fifty, Clairo was nominated for her first Grammy this year with “Charm.” I honestly think she has a chance of winning this year! Unfortunately, I haven’t listened to the two other nominees, so that’s all I really have to offer!
Best R&B Performance
And the nominees are:
Chris Brown - Residuals
Coco Jones - Here We Go (Uh Oh)
Muni Long - Made For Me (Live On BET)
SZA - Saturn
Jhené Aiko - Guidance
What Will Win: Saturn
What Should Win: Saturn
Wild Card - Made For Me (Live on BET)
SZA, Chris Brown and Coco Jones are all repeat nominees from last year. Coco took the award home last year deservedly, and while I love Here We Go (Uh Oh), I don’t think it has the same pull as ICU. SZA makes the most sense here. However, we have a viral TikTok song in our midst with Muni Long’s Made for Me. I admit I am not the biggest Muni fan, but Made For Me is quite exquisite and I can see it stealing this race. However, I do wonder if it being the live version had an adverse effect. We shall see!
Best Progressive R&B Album
And the nominees are:
Avery*Sunshine - So Glad to Know
Durand Bernarr - En Route
Childish Gambino - Bando Stone and the New World
Kehlani - Crash
Why Lawd - NxWorries (Anderson .Paak & Knxwledge)
What Will Win: Bando Stone and the New World
What Should Win: Why Lawd
Why Lawd is the best album here (haven’t listened to So Glad to Know or En Route) and Anderson Paak has a fantastic track record with the Grammys. But, it’s incredibly hard to believe that they won’t give this to the final Childish Gambino album. Again, this is a case where both albums made my top 50, so I wouldn’t be upset with Gambino’s win here.
Best R&B Song
And the nominees are:
Coco Jones - Here We Go (Uh Oh)
Kehlani - After Hours
Muni Long - Ruined Me
SZA - Saturn
Tems - Burning
What Will Win: Saturn
What Should Win: Saturn
Wild Card: Ruined Me
I have a hard time differentiating between Best R&B Song and Best R&B performance. I guess I am supposed to focus more on composition here and then performance is more about the… vocal performance? Who the hell knows! Either way, Saturn again, is my pick to win, with Muni Long coming in as a Wild Card here too!
Best R&B Album
And the nominees are:
Chris Brown - 11:11
Lalah Hathaway - Vantablack
Muni Long - Revenge
Lucky Daye - Algorithm
Usher - Coming Home
What Will Win: Revenge
What Should Win: Algorithm
Wild Card: 11:11
Do people feel bad for Chris Brown? There’s been this interesting narrative that he’s been bullied because… people don’t want to work with him? Or like, because people talk about his bad behavior? Like… every other celebrity? There’s some part of me that people will think he’s long overdue to win an award again, and while I disagree, I put him as a Wild Card in case the Grammy voters all had their hands tied or something. I think Muni Long has the best story to take the win home although Algorithm is so damn good.
Best Rap Performance
And the nominees are:
Cardi B - Enough (Miami)
Common & Pete Rock Featuring Posdnuos - When the Sun Shines Again
Doechii - Nissan Altima
Eminem - Houdini
Future & Metro Boomin Featuring Kendrick Lamar - Like That
Glorilla - Yeah Glo!
Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
What Will Win: Not Like Us
What Should Win: Nissan Altima
Wild Card: Yeah Glo!
This is pretty much already engraved in Kendrick’s name. Undeniably. Nissan Altima is just so amazing. I wish it could take the win here. Even with all the momentum Doechii has been receiving as of late, there is not enough momentum in the world to overtake what Kendrick was able to do with Not Like Us. But wouldn’t Yeah Glo! be the most fun win here??? Why can’t we have fun anymore???
Best Melodic Rap Performance
And the nominees are:
Jordan Adetunji Featuring Kehlani - Kehlani
Beyoncé Featuring Linda Martell & Shaboozey - Spaghettii
Future & Metro Boomin Featuring The Weeknd - We Still Don’t Trust You
Latto - Big Mama
Rapsody Featuring Erykah Badu - 3:AM
What Will Win: We Still Don’t Trust You
What Should Win: Spaghettii
Wild Card: Kehlani
I still don’t quite understand the whole Future, Metro Boomin thing as it correlates to Drake and maybe I don’t need to. I think that collaboration just has the juice, so to speak and will take home the win. As always, I am rooting for Beyoncé to win this category because she should always win every category. Spaghettii was an unexpected track to appear on Cowboy Carter, but it strengthens the point of the record all the same. All Southern Black American music is country! Fight me on this! Kehlani, though, did gain such popularity and people might find it cool for a song to win when the featured artist is also the name of the song.
Best Country Solo Performance
And the nominees are:
Beyoncé - 16 Carriages
Jelly Roll - I Am Not Okay
Kacey Musgraves - The Architect
Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)
Chris Stapleton - It Takes A Woman
What Will Win: 16 Carriages
What Should Win: 16 Carriages
Wild Card: I Am Not Okay
Oddly enough, this is an incredibly stacked category. I don’t even like I Am Not Okay, but it seems to have a chokehold on the rest of civilization. So, it could somehow run away with a win here. 16 Carriages was penned by Beyoncé and only Beyoncé and I think features one of her best vocal performances. The melody is absolutely gorgeous and her vocal control is insane. Under normal circumstances, I would have expected A Bar Song (Tipsy) to take home an award, but the Grammys are fickle when it comes to these major popular record-breaking songs. It’s hard to predict unpredictability. Shout-out to the Architect, which is also a really stellar song! I am so sorry to be paying you dust.
Best Country Song
And the nominees are:
Post Malone Featuring Morgan Wallen - I Had Some Help
Kacey Musgraves - The Architect
Shaboozey - A Bar Song (Tipsy)
Beyoncé - Texas Hold ‘Em
Jelly Roll - I Am Not Okay
What Will Win: Texas Hold ‘Em
What Should Win: The Architect
Wild Card: I Had Some Help
I know I just previously said that Beyoncé should win every category. And if it was 16 Carriages nominated in this category, I would agree with myself! But The Architect, in my opinion, is just a superior song in every way to Texas Hold ‘Em. I could not pay Miss Kacey dust twice! I Had Some Help actively sucks, but I don’t trust the Grammys not to vote for the racist and Post Malone. So… wild card, it is!
Best Country Album
And the nominees are:
Beyoncé - Cowboy Carter
Post Malone - F-1 Trillion
Kacey Musgraves - Deeper Well
Chris Stapleton - Higher
Lainey Wilson - Whirlwind
What Will Win: Cowboy Carter
What Should Win: Cowboy Carter
Wild Card: Deeper Well
Deeper Well is excellent and is only second to Cowboy Carter. A 10/10 album really. But, it would kind of be ridiculous if Beyoncé doesn’t win this category. Like… come on.
Best Score Soundtrack for Visual Media
And the nominees are:
Laura Karpman - American Fiction
Challengers - Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross
The Color Purple - Kris Bowers
Dune: Part Two - Hans Zimmer
Shōgun - Nick Chuba, Atticus Ross & Leopold Ross
What Will Win: Challengers
What Should Win: Challengers
Wildcard: Dune: Part Two
Let the record reflect, I LOVE the score for American Fiction and the Color Purple. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, I am pretty sure we know that Challengers is the score of all scores. And because the Grammys sometimes have more sense than the Oscars do… this is too easy. But there’s a tiny little voice in me that wonders… what if they just throw it Hans Zimmer’s way? Like, that’s totally possible here.
That’s all I have this year. If you’re wondering where the wind blows for other categories, it is actually quite simple. The Grammys should choose how I would choose. This means that Dan Nigro should win for Producer of the Year, Non-Classical, Raye should win for Songwriter of the Year, Brat should win for Best Dance/Electronic Album, and Broken Man should win for Best Rock Performance and Best Rock Song.
Oh, did you think I was finished? Absolutely not! Flea should win for Best Alternative Music Performance, That’s You and Make Me Forget should tie for Best Traditional R&B Performance, Alligator Bites Never Heal should win for Best Rap Album, Not Like Us should win for Best Rap Song, II Most Wanted should win for Best Country Duo/Group Performance, and Ya Ya should win for Best Americana Performance. Oh! And I wouldn’t mind if ORQUÍDEAS wins for Best Latin Pop Album and if Merrily We Roll Along wins for Best Musical Theater Album. Give Jonathan Groff another Grammy!
Finally, Olivia Rodrigo should be awarded a Grammy for Can’t Catch Me Now. Don’t you dare give it to Barbra Streisand or Jon Batiste. I am watching you closely, Best Song Written for Visual Media category! Fortnight might be the only Grammy Taylor takes home (for best Music Video) but even then, I prefer Not Like Us. Rooting for Tems in Best African Music Performance and Best Global Music Album… too very stupidly named categories. And Rooting for Willow in the Best Engineered Album category. Everything else is not my circus, not my monkeys.
I like posting these the day of. Because then, I don’t have to wait to see how wrong I am! Yet, I wait with bated breath!